The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is expected on May 27, nearly four days in advance of its normal date, June 1.
If realised, it will be the first time since 2010 that the monsoon has arrived over the southern state as early as May 27, as per the onset dates data maintained by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) (see box).
In its bulletin on the monsoon onset released on Friday, the IMD said, “This year, the onset of the southwest monsoon is likely to be earlier than the normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27 with a model error of four days on either side.”
On Thursday, the IMD said that the monsoon’s arrival over the South Andaman Sea was expected within the next two-three days. In association with the enhanced cross-equatorial winds, conditions are becoming favourable for the advance of the southwest monsoon into the South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal around May 15. The normal date for the arrival over the Andaman Sea is May 21.
|Year||Realised onset date|